Less of a Puzzle
نویسندگان
چکیده
The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. This is set within a limited participation framework. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The ‘puzzles’ in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for (a) the persistence in the forward discount (b) the random walk in spot exchange rates (c) the low volatility of the forward discount (d) the high volatility of expected forward speculative profits and (e) the even higher volatility of spot rate changes. The major innovation is that it is able to replicate the extent of the bias of the forward discount as a predictor of realised spot rate changes. JEL Classification Numbers: F31; F41; G12
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